Are Debut Novels Really Failing to Launch?

Are Debut Novels Really Failing to Launch? Esquire Magazine and many other publishing companies seem to think so. They’re missing the point.

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Unexpectedly, a controversial article on Esquire caught my attention on Twitter: “Why Are Debut Novels Failing to Launch?” You can read it here. As someone who can't resist a good debate, I couldn’t let this pass without a response. So, let’s delve into this contentious topic.

While it's true that an author’s debut sales can influence their future, it's crucial to shift our focus from the fear of failure to the potential for success. Let's inspire authors to persevere and aim for the stars. In the meantime, let's address some of the misconceptions from the article and offer a different perspective.

MYTH 1: To break out, debut novels must be chosen for a major book club, a retailer push, and a significant profile.

If this were true, hardly any debuts would be published. First, it is not a given that your book will sell like crazy if it is chosen for a major book club. The sales figures for Reese’s Book Club, Oprah’s Book Club, Reading with Jenna, and GMA’s Book Club wildly fluctuate. Sure, each book club has put several books on the map, but success is never guaranteed. Second, retailers have vastly changed the way they promote books. Barnes & Noble no longer accept co-op money (money publishers pay for favorable store placement), affecting their stores' discoverability. I visited my local B&N in New Jersey on Monday, and it took me 30 minutes to find Colm Tóibín’s books Brooklyn and Long Island. I didn’t ask for assistance because I wanted to see where the books were placed in the store. I found them on a barely noticeable small end table. Colm Tóibín is not a debut author, but this exercise proved that publishers are now at a disadvantage with one of the last bookstore chains in the country…that keeps expanding. Third, how many debut authors can you name that have major profiles? It isn’t easy to think of them because they are debut authors. Unless we talk about celebrities—which I rarely consider authors (Andrew McCarthy, Molly Ringwald, and Ethan Hawke are exceptions, and I am sure there are others) because they use ghostwriters—we don’t know much about debut authors before their books are published. Sometimes, as with journalists, we have an idea of who the author is, but that is a rarity.

MYTH 2: Most books sell under 5000 copies yearly, and no one knows how many debuts are published annually.

I beg of you, please stop perpetuating the idea that most books sell under 5000 copies per year. I don’t need my MBA to know publishers would be out of business if this statistic were accurate. I have been privy to hundreds of sales reports throughout my three (!) decade career in the industry. While there isn’t an “average” number of copies sold for each book published, I can confidently say that plenty of books sell over 5000 copies annually. Additionally, a book’s success is not anchored to its first year of sales. Sometimes, it takes 18 months to sell 5000 copies. Other times, it may take two years to sell 15000 copies. That is not terrible! Book publishing is a long game. Articles like this perceive it to have a finite time frame.

Publishers know how many debut books they publish annually—they don’t want to give media those figures. *Shrugs shoulders*

Semi-Myth 3: “Thousands” of advance reader copies used to be sent out by publishers.

I’ve worked on several books that publishers felt were breakouts. I would produce 1500-2000 ARCs (advance reader copies) to send to indie bookstores, B&N reps, media, trade shows, and your second cousin twice removed. Was this done regularly? Absolutely not. It was reserved for debut authors who received high six-figure or seven-figure advances. Did it always help? No, it did not. Do you know what publicity departments used to do on Summer Fridays? They’d clean out the “book room.” That means they’d toss leftover ARCs. I am not kidding when I tell you that we used to walk boxes of ARCs to different departments so it wouldn’t look like we were wasting so many copies. We didn’t want the publisher to know we couldn’t find use for an obscene amount of dead trees (former colleagues reading this: you know who you are). Do I think printed ARCs are still necessary? Yes, but in small numbers. Why? Because there aren’t as many people in the media to whom they can be sent. If there is a large ARC printing, chances are many of them are being sent to influencers, and that can still be wasteful. I have met with CFOs while I was at various publishing houses who put the kibosh on big mailings because of the cost. Between envelopes (the beloved “jiffy” in size 4—I love you, publicists), postage, and labor, mailings are a money pit. Since so many media members are still working remotely, publicists are more likely to pitch first and mail ARCs as requested. That is how I work, and I have never had an issue. Let’s move out of what was and into what is: the world has changed, and printed ARCs aren’t always necessary if digital ones are available.

Myth 4: Authors need to be influencers.

Some influencers get book deals, but a debut fiction author is rarely also an influencer. The more authors I speak to, the more I hear they do not want to spend time on social media. If you’ve been reading this newsletter for a while, you know I am an advocate for digital surrogates: people authors know who have robust followings/engagement and can post about their books. Further, influencers have difficulty getting their content seen due to algorithms, so I don’t know that you’d want authors to fall into that category.

Myth 5: “Publicists noticed the cracks when Snapchat emerged.”

The article states that this occurred in the 2010s. I was knee-deep in work as a publicity/marketing director and associate publisher at Atria Books, Weinstein Books, Running Press, and Rodale Books. Snapchat was not the problem. Media began contracting in the 2010s, and book sections were cut, affecting publishing. Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat were still nascent in book promotion. Publishers tried several digital marketing methods between 2010 and 2015 to see if anything would stick. No one had the correct answer, and we started worrying about what happened to book review sections. It is also important to note that The New York Times instituted a paywall in 2011, which affected how many eyeballs were exposed to book coverage online. Several media entities followed their lead. Accessibility to news is a significant factor in how media impacts book exposure.

Now, let’s expand on some factual statements in the article:

Truth 1: Authors must be front-facing when on social media.

I’ve written about this various times, but authors must define their audience before creating content on social media. Your book isn’t for everyone, so outlining what I call “a perfect reader profile” is necessary. Publishers should do this for every acquisition. I believe one of the reasons so many debut books are lost in a sea of other titles is that deep work hasn’t been done to define their readership. Building a robust social media platform means engaging with others; some authors are uncomfortable doing so. That is okay as long as the author finds digital surrogates. Readers want a parasocial relationship with authors. They want to feel like they know you. I advise giving them just enough so they feel like you’re more than an acquaintance. Still, skipping is okay if it is against one’s nature to create videos, etc. However, publishers still want to see at least some connection to their readers.

Truth 2: More authors are hiring freelance publicists. Myth: Freelance publicists always cost five figures, and only wealthy authors can afford them.

Most freelance publicists, including myself, must turn down potential clients because they are booked solid. I can only speak for myself, but I am already looking at projects for late fall (which is around the corner) and 2025. Some of my work is publicity-focused, but I combine marketing with many of my campaigns. Some authors are happy to spend money on what makes sense in marketing their books, while others want low-to-no-cost solutions. Some small presses don’t have publicity departments. Big publishers have overwhelmed publicity and marketing departments with so many books they can’t keep up.

Again, I am only speaking for myself, but I offer packages for small press authors and work with other authors within their budgets, as do other publicists. Some of the work I do isn’t done by publishers: community building, branding, newsletter growth, and brand partnerships. It’s always worth talking to a freelance publicist to gauge whether you need one. The caveat is that you must have information from your publisher before a conversation with a publicist: publication date, ARC date (whether printed or digital), metadata date (when the book will be up on Amazon, BN.com, etc.), planned book signings, finished book date, and more. The more information you give a publicist, the better they can assess your needs.

What is happening with debut novels?

1.        Too many books are published, and the market is saturated. I will die on the hill that fewer books should be published unless the industry has the budgets and staff to handle them.

2.        Publishers acquire books and don’t allocate marketing/publicity budgets for them. See #1.

3.        The bar for entertaining an audience is incredibly high. Think about the droves of people who spent money on Taylor Swift and Beyoncé concerts and movie nights for Barbie and Oppenheimer. The film industry just experienced one of the worst Memorial Day box offices. People want experiences and will pay for entertainment but spend money on specific things.

4.        We are attached to our phones. I consider mobile devices “digital living rooms.” When you want me to read a book, you ask me to leave my digital living room—which is especially true when we consider social media—so what I receive in return must be pretty great. If we think about this as a flow chart, it is something like phone—>digital entertainment—>social media—>author—>audience—>book.

5.        Discoverability online and in retail stores other than independent bookstores is a mess. I don’t have an immediate solution for this that I can share, but I have ideas—that someone will have to pay me to tell them .

6.        We live in a society where preorders are impossible because consumers want what they want when they want it. Preorder campaigns rarely equate to meaningful sales. Let’s stop torturing authors with this task. Low preorders aren’t a precursor for bad sales.

7.        There are great people at The Mighty Blaze and Debutful who do hard work to elevate debut novels. We should support them.

8.        Audience development could be much better in publishing houses. This is where the perfect reader profile comes in.

9.        There is sometimes a disconnect between what editors acquire and the marketplace. You can’t acquire books in a silo. You must look at the entertainment industry holistically to see what is/isn’t working and take cues.

10.  Book publishing has no scarcity, and scarcity is what sells. I have one big idea to help solve this, but…that is my secret sauce.

This piece helped decipher the Esquire article and put things into perspective. Keep writing, keep publishing, and do it wisely.