Book Publishing Predictions: 2024

2023 was a busy year in book publishing. What's in store for 2024?

Thank you for all the well wishes. I consider myself lucky that my Covid recovery has gone smoothly. There is some residual exhaustion, but I’m 100% better.

2023 was a busy year for book publishing, but not as transformative as I would have liked. Will 2024 be the year the book world wows us? Here are some predictions about the industry writ large:

I. Simon & Schuster Restructures

Now that KKR’s acquisition of S&S is complete and a new board has been installed, some significant changes are inevitable. It wouldn’t surprise me if S&S shut down or consolidated a couple of imprints, especially in its children’s division. Expect a shift in the upper ranks of underperforming adult imprints and a heavy investment in audiobook expansion.

S&S will attract considerable talent on acquisitions but take fewer risks on debut fiction and nonfiction. They’re going to bank on the books where the data makes sense. This means they will lean on the expertise of their board, which has deep experience in TikTok, YouTube, and Disney.

Rolling the dice: If S&S wants to lock in Colleen Hoover for the long haul, they should give her a romance imprint under the umbrella of Atria.

II. Goodreads Further Implodes

If you’ve been reading this newsletter, you already know I’m not a fan of Goodreads. Authors, save yourself time and aggravation and skip Goodreads. You don’t need to be there to promote your book. As mentioned, I have never been in a meeting where an executive credited Goodreads for anything. An argument could be made that a presence on Goodreads increases an author’s name recognition, but the platform is doing more harm than good now. It seems like Storygraph is a platform to check out instead of Goodreads.

Rolling the dice: True improvement from Goodreads won’t occur until Amazon divests, which seems unlikely. Publishers must get involved here and force a change.

III. Shorter Fiction Will Rule the Roost

Please think about this regarding a consumer’s attention span. We are a society that has become accustomed to three-minute videos on TikTok. When a movie clocks in at three hours, you can hear a collective groan from its audience. Books are no different. You might feel that your 150K word novel is perfect, but I guarantee a lot of it needs to be cut. My prediction doesn’t only align with a consumer’s preference for brevity. Shorter books can have a lower price point. Consumers can also finish shorter books faster, which means the next title on their to-be-read pile is less likely to collect dust. If I had to choose a good length for a novel, I’d say 70-80K words.

Rolling the dice: Consumers don’t want to pay high prices for books, so publishers must pay attention to items other than books selling well. A good example is the beauty industry. The brand Drunk Elephant is expensive, but their products fly off the shelves. If a consumer has $60 of disposable income to spend right now, it’s more likely to go to a popular brand, not a book. Publishers are underutilizing people who can broker brand partnerships.

IV. TikTok (ByteDance) Launches Its Publishing Division

I have to hand it to ByteDance. They’ve managed to keep their book publishing plans (mostly) under wraps. There was some talk about contracts they offered some writers, and they registered a name for the publishing division; I know they’ve hired staff, but that’s about it. The consensus seems to be that it will be a digital publishing venture, but who knows? I’m excited to see what happens next because their ability to target users will allow them to market books in a way traditional publishers can’t.

Rolling the dice: TikTok will create its own bestseller list based on what titles are trending on the platform.

V. Bestseller Lists Will Matter Less

It has become increasingly difficult to rely on the credibility of bestseller lists that don’t disclose their methodology for collecting data. Further, a book’s success is not predicated on hitting a bestseller list. The only one I pay close attention to is Publishers Weekly because they include Bookscan sales data. Jane Friedman’s bestseller list is also one to watch. USA Today’s bestseller list has lost its luster, not least because they don’t appear to include self-published authors. The Wall Street Journal’s bestseller lists are dead, and The New York Times bestseller list is…questionable. Many authors have written books that steadily sell without appearing on a bestseller list.

Rolling the dice: Publishers must reconsider bestseller bonus clauses in author contracts. Bestseller bonuses aren't fair if there is no transparency in the data collection methodology.

VI. AI, The Good

I cannot tell a lie. I am a fan of ChatGPT and use it often. It saves me a lot of time doing grunt work. I use it ethically, which means I don’t use it to trick anyone, pass work off as my own, or rely on the information it produces as fact. I also heavily edit anything I ask it to do. AI will not replace jobs in marketing and publicity, but it will facilitate some work.

Rolling the dice: AI can help with marketing copy but can’t replace creativity. Employees should be trained on how to use it ethically. AI is not going anywhere, so it is essential that publishing people fully understand it.

VII. AI, The Bad

The publishing industry should form a collective task force to sort out what needs to be done about AI. Publishers should not rely on AI for book covers because they won’t know copyright infringement exists on the images produced. Additionally, there must be clear communication from publishers to agents and authors (especially authors) about what is being done to protect their work. While I think fiction written by AI is objectively terrible, agents and editors must be savvy about nonfiction. It is too easy for someone to ask ChatGPT to write a business or self-improvement book seemingly using someone else’s work.

Rolling the dice: Expect stricter legislation presented by the Biden administration on using AI. Unfortunately, the train has already left the station, and media companies are using AI. Brands are beginning to create AI influencers that are difficult to distinguish from humans.

VIII. Social Media Will Continue to Fracture

Elon Musk will bankrupt Twitter/X by the end of 2024 and sell it for parts. The platform is already worth over 70% LESS than its purchase price. That is a lot of brand equity flushed down the toilet. Twitter/X doesn’t sell books. The conversion rate has always been dreadful. Advertisers know this, and those who have fled the platform aren’t returning. They don’t need to. It’s unfortunate how much Musk has destroyed the good things the platform provided for the book world.

I spend a lot of time on Threads, and I like it, but “Book Threads” has reached a certain level of toxicity that has me questioning the platform's usefulness for authors. I’ve previously written that authors should invest time in Threads, but the jury is still out. Here’s why: Threads is the convergence of people who migrated from Twitter and Instagram. Many Instagram users have never used Twitter and aren’t accustomed to the interactions on that platform. This isn’t a criticism; it is an observation. While hashtags now exist on Threads, users still have funky algorithms. It is still early, and Meta is putting muscle behind the platform, but improvements would be welcome.

Instagram remains steady. Its functionality is excellent: users can post in Stories, create Reels, schedule an Instagram Live, or post on their grid. No other platform offers as many choices for content. Plus, as my UPS driver will tell you, I get sucked into the targeted ads on Instagram every time. I still like it for book promotion, though authors must be comfortable using it and engaging with other users.

Facebook groups are where the action happens on that platform. It’s not necessary to create author fan pages. Those days have passed. The platform won’t change in a significant way.

Bluesky is still an invitation-only platform, and you won’t find much growth there. I don’t think the platform knows what it is yet, but it has a nice new butterfly logo.

LinkedIn is useful in specific ways, but the posts are too long, and it seems most people want to be in one big TED Talk. I don’t see that changing, though the platform still works for self-improvement and thought leadership.

Roll the dice: There is a trend on social media that isn’t helping anyone in this industry. It has become an engagement tactic to list “the worst” books. Here’s my unsolicited advice: don’t do that. Authors spend their careers writing books. Indeed, a particular book is not for everyone, and we all have books we dislike, but when you put a book on blast and call it the worst or say you hated it, my question is: Can you write a better one? Publishing is a harsh industry as it is, and the pettiness that I see is discouraging. There is a difference between valid literary criticism and creating a social media post for attention. Let’s not bring that energy into 2024.

IX. TikTok

TikTok is in its category because that’s where it belongs. It is TikTok’s world, and we live in it. The platform does well by giving users what they want without having to search for it. We all have decision fatigue, and TikTok’s algorithm is here to save us. That is why it is hurting streaming platforms. We could spend over an hour looking at the terrible interfaces of Netflix, Hulu, and Disney+, or we can pick up our phones, open TikTok, and see precisely what we want (in my case, it’s Sex & the City clips and swing dancing competitions). It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a full-feature film released on TikTok someday.

While it’s still questionable how the current administration will handle TikTok, I don’t see it being shut down. BookTok is going to evolve, though, and the critical thing to remember is that most books that go viral do so organically. I imagine the algorithm will favor those books when TikTok launches its publishing division.

Roll the dice: Publishers must be cautious in relying on another platform to promote their books, especially one launching a publishing division.

X. Spotify’s Audiobook Experiment Doesn’t Pay Off

Spotify is attempting to dig itself out of a hole. The company overspent on podcasts, and it didn’t pay off. Its subscriber growth is somewhat stagnant. Now, Spotify has audiobooks to stream, and it’s a raw deal for authors. Bloomberg got a hold of Macmillian’s terms, which you can read here as a gift link. Spotify’s audiobook library is limited, and Audible has such a significant market share that it’s nearly impossible to think another subscription platform will make a dent.

Roll the dice: Authors won’t make much money from their audiobooks streaming on Spotify. Nor will publishers.

XI. Self-publishing becomes more normalized

I predict we will see tremendous growth in self-publishing over the next five years. I’m not talking about people who upload a book on Amazon because they feel like it. Some savvy writers can assemble their teams and seamlessly get an ebook into the marketplace. It won’t be without its challenges, but it will happen.

Roll the dice: This is exciting to me because it allows for more creativity in the industry.

XII. More Publishing Execs Will Exit Companies & Go It Alone

When I say things aren't rosy, I speak for a good swath of Gen Xers in the publishing industry. I can see more buyouts offered and people taking them, but they will start their own businesses instead of retiring (can anyone retire?). I am all for it.

Roll the dice: Innovation is the name of the game. I wonder who is thinking about starting their own publishing venture…

XIII. Most Book Sales Will Occur Online

Hachette recently entered the e-commerce business by allowing consumers to buy books directly from its website. Other publishers do this, and while it helps them collect customer data, it will never overtake Amazon’s market share. A little over 70% of all book sales are conducted through e-commerce, and Amazon’s market share is over half of that. I love physical bookstores, but the average consumer wants to click a button and have their purchase delivered as soon as possible. As the younger members of Gen Z have their own income, they will make purchases online.

Roll the dice: I realize many people are anti-Amazon, but their hold on consumers is undeniable. Influencers now have storefronts on the app, so hold on to your hat

XIV. More Media Disappears

2023 was a very bad year for the media. According to Poynter, 20,000 media jobs disappeared in 2023. That is a depressing number. Any business whose revenue relies on advertising revenue is looking pretty bleak. Buzzfeed shut down its news division, Vice has filed for bankruptcy, and so on. I hate seeing announcements that people are being laid off or taking buyouts. We need good journalism, and we certainly need people writing about books. It’s just not going to happen in the traditional sense. Publishers need to understand that the publicity landscape has drastically changed, and they cannot keep pressuring publicists to confirm traditional media when a lot of it is nonexistent.

Roll the dice: This year, more than ever, it is imperative to find ways to connect authors to their audience.

END NOTES:

Next week, I will announce a new feature for paid subscribers and my services, so stay tuned for that. I’m also working on an editorial calendar for paid posts.

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That’s all for now. As always, thank you for reading my work. I am grateful you’re here.

Kathleen