Let's Talk About the TikTok Ban

It’s not time to panic…yet.

I’m almost fully recovered from the flu (save for a relentless cough). Thanks for your well wishes. Truthfully, it’s been hard to get back into writing the newsletter because my heart is so broken for all those affected by the wildfires in Los Angeles. Whenever a tragic world event occurs, I become introspective and think about how to help. Right now, that means seeking out vetted organizations that are accepting donations. I am focused on Altadena Girls, an organization started by 14-year-old Avery Colvert to help teen girls in her community who lost everything in the fires. I often post other ways to help on Threads and Instagram, where you can find me @kathmschmidt. The last thing I want to impart is that it’s okay not to be okay. Feeling like you can’t focus on work is expected when the news is scary and tragic. I would encourage those in book publishing and PR supervisory positions to talk to their staff. You never know what someone is going through unless you take the time to ask.

And now, the topic du jour: TikTok.

As many of you know, TikTok is set to be banned in the United States on Sunday, January 19, unless the decision is miraculously reversed by The Supreme Court, which I doubt. Per The Information, “TikTok plans to shut off its app for U.S. users on Sunday, the day a federal law will ban the app, unless the Supreme Court intervenes to block the ban, according to two people familiar with TikTok’s plans. Abruptly switching off the app, rather than allowing people who have already downloaded it to continue using it, will bring home the impact of the ban to all TikTok’s users. Under the plan, people attempting to open the TikTok app will instead see a pop-up message directing them to a website with information about the ban, one of the people said. TikTok plans to give users the option to download all their data so they can take a record of their personal information with them, the person said.” This is different than allowing users to access the app without being able to update it, which had previously been thought.

Additionally, it means the app would be removed from app stores run by Apple and Google, which had been part of the deal all along. Let’s be clear: proactively shutting down TikTok and ensuring all its users are affected is ByteDance’s (TikTok’s parent company) way of taking the hardline with the U.S. ByteDance is well aware of its place in the creator economy here and is using it as a bargaining chip. It’s as if they are saying, “Ban the app, and we will hurt the creator economy and brands.” Still, I don’t expect a last-minute reprieve from The Supreme Court (I could be wrong!). That said, I also don’t expect the ban to last.

While it’s true that the U.S. condition for allowing TikTok to operate here is that it divest from its parent company, ByteDance, President-Elect Trump loves the attention of being the “hero” of something. It’s my prediction that he, along with Elon Musk, will somehow reverse the ban. I don’t think it’s wise for a U.S. entity to purchase TikTok because China has been very vocal about ByteDance not selling TikTok’s algorithm along with the app. TikTok’s algorithm is its secret sauce. It’s the thing that makes the app so addictive and shows you videos you want to see without having to search for them. Further, it would take A LOT for a group of U.S. investors to make TikTok profitable. For one, digital advertising isn’t what it used to be. Secondly, see Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter.

The immediate question to address in this newsletter is whether book publishing should panic. My answer is yes and no. Surprisingly, the Big Five haven’t lobbied for TikTok to stay intact since they credit the app with many book sales. I would’ve expected at least one CEO of the Big Five to make a statement about the impending ban and how/if it would affect the industry. A publicly stated plan B from the industry would lessen the anxiety of marketing staff and authors. I don’t think anyone should immediately invest much time in TikTok “dupes” like Lemon8, Flip, or the quickly popular Xiaohongshu app (commonly called Red Note). Authors should sit tight and explore their options on Instagram (Reels is the closest thing to TikTok) if they have a robust following on TikTok. Publishers should have devised an alternative plan to put more resources behind other platforms. If they haven’t done so, they’re behind the curve.

I have previously written about the problem of book publishing becoming overly dependent on TikTok/BookTok. When you put all your proverbial eggs in one basket owned by a billionaire or foreign entity, you are at the mercy of their business decisions and government regulations. When the publishing industry finds that something is creating an ecosystem where books sell, they will hold onto it as long as possible. The issue is that the sector depends on other platforms to make their fiscal numbers work. BookTok is becoming saturated, which makes it harder for new books to break through. It has always been great for backlist titles, which usually find their way onto the app organically. I’m not saying BookTok isn’t a good thing, but I am saying that I don’t think book sales of frontlist titles will be that adversely affected by a TikTok ban, however long that lasts. Backlist titles are a different story, but still, I wouldn’t panic and assume that a TikTok ban will last very long.

Authors who have invested energy, time, and money into building their brand on TikTok should proceed with caution. Download your data, but sit tight. Remember that billions of dollars are at stake in e-commerce on TikTok, so a prolonged ban doesn’t make economic sense. I don’t love that so many social media platforms are at the mercy of politics, but I’m also unsurprised by it. I know many people are dismayed by Meta’s decision to eliminate fact-checkers/moderation, but honestly, there wasn’t much of that occurring anyway. It doesn’t mean I support their decision; it just means it wasn’t exactly breaking news.

2025 will be transformative in terms of how we use social media. There have never been more options, and social media has never been more fragmented. I’m not discouraged by this. Instead, I’m excited to dig in and see where each path takes book promotion.

PROGRAMMING NOTES:

March will mark two years since I started writing this newsletter. While it is a labor of love, it is also a lot of work. To that end, there will be more content behind a paywall than before. Let me explain why: I pay for several media subscriptions and often “gift” articles to write the newsletter. When I don’t link to a gift article, I use what I read as research for my writing.

Additionally, writing the newsletter means I take time away from client work, which is my livelihood. I am not saying the newsletter will be all paid, but you will find more material for paid subscribers in the coming months. Please do not send me rude emails about unsubscribing because you don’t want to pay $7 per month (this has happened). If you want to make a case for a comp subscription because this is unaffordable, you can email publishingconfidential@gmail.com. I make decisions on a case-by-case basis and have happily comped others. I appreciate my paid subscribers, and once I am fully caught up on work (this flu has been no joke), things will ramp up here—there is much more to come.