Publishers Aren’t the Only Ones with a Gambling Problem

Retailers also assess an author’s sales track.

I don’t know about you, but starting October with weather in the 60s feels really nice. This has always been my favorite month. It’s also a complicated one: the anniversary of my dad’s passing is on October 20. Usually, I accept that October will be a difficult month, but I’m determined to change that this year. The first step? Booking another trip to Italy for next September. This time, we’re going to split time between Florence and Tuscany.

Before I get into today’s topic, make sure you scroll to the bottom of the newsletter for a special promotion from DeepDive’s How to Write a Novel and/or How to Write Autobiographical Fiction courses.

And now, the main event.

Last week, The Walrus published a piece titled “The Publishing Industry has a Gambling Problem” by Taja Isen. You can read it here. In it, Isen explains how an author’s sales track—their sales history for each book they’ve published—can hurt their chances of selling future books. The sales track is also responsible for authors receiving lower advances if they were paid a significant amount for their first book, only to have weak sales. The article is informative, and I recommend reading it; however, some context is missing.

Publishers aren’t the only ones in the industry who rely on an author’s sales track record to predict how their next book will perform. Retailers, both big and small, also consider an author’s sales history important. They know how many copies of a particular author’s previous book their store sold, so they give estimates to their sales reps accordingly. Ask anyone who works in sales for a publisher, and they will tell you how difficult it is to convince a buyer to order a significant quantity of a book if the author’s previous title didn’t sell well. This makes it more difficult for publishers to grow authors beyond two books—or even beyond their debut. While I disagree with the decision to disregard an author who has potential but hasn’t hit their stride, I also understand that publishing is a business with tight margins.

When James Daunt became CEO of Barnes & Noble, he made it very clear that he intended to run a disciplined operation. He has cut book orders across the board, skipped over many titles, and eliminated co-op (funds that publishers pay, which give prominent placement in stores). The bar is high for a publisher’s account reps to persuade B&N to take copies of a book they believe will succeed. Sometimes, extensive publicity and marketing plans must be submitted to B&N reps to secure a significant buy. Sometimes it works. Other times, it seems as if B&N is squinting at us and saying, “Yeah, AND?” In other words, there is never enough publicity and marketing—at least it can seem that way. Publishers are at their mercy—numbers have to matter because retailers like B&N make it that way.

Costco will only stock books through the fall holiday season, so it will primarily carry bestsellers. They need to sell a lot of books quickly, so it doesn’t make sense for them to take a chance on a new author or stock copies of a book by an author with a poor sales history. What benefit does that have for their business?

Target and Walmart operate similarly, but they sell books year-round. I often browse the book section at Target, where they stock popular titles in romance, romantasy, memoir, and commercial fiction. Outside of those categories, you’ll find bestsellers. Walmart tends to be more conservative, so you’ll find bestselling Amish romance books, Christian books, and similar genres. You’ll also find select bestselling books. If your book is available online at Target, it doesn’t mean Target is carrying it in-store. The same applies to Walmart, Sam’s Club, and other retailers. What it does mean is that the distributor Readerlink has ordered copies of your book and has it available online at certain retailers. Do distributors monitor sales tracks? You bet they do.

We can argue that publishers should dedicate more resources to books with potential. Sometimes, they do. The reality of publishing—unlikely to change anytime soon—is that there are too many books. There aren’t enough publicity and marketing channels for the number of books published each year. There isn’t enough retail space for chains and indie stores to take a risk on a debut or second book by an author with weak sales. I don’t like how the industry handles this, but as you know, I am nothing if not blunt. Authors need to understand how this system works beyond articles that only blame publishers.

When I started working in the industry in 1996, publishers invested time and money into developing authors. Some publishers still do this, and I commend them. It’s rare that a debut instantly takes off, and sometimes it can take three to five books before an author “breaks out.” The work I love to do the most is sticking with authors long-term so we can build something together. That is how I was “raised” in the publishing industry.

Publishing isn’t the only industry reliant on sales. The music industry will drop artists if their streaming numbers are low. Beauty brands will stop selling products that don’t move enough units. I can’t remember the last time I bought clothes or shoes at full price; everything seems to go on sale because of overproduction. Consumers aren’t just fickle; they’re currently very cautious. Unfortunately, economic conditions and global events are often overlooked when analyzing sales data. I’m sure some industries use PESTEL analysis (Political, Economic, Sociocultural, Technological, Environmental, and Legal factors) to make decisions, but for the most part, book publishing does not.

I can’t claim to have a solution for the sales track issue, but a good starting point might be to adopt the way test-optional colleges evaluate prospective students: holistically. An author is much more than the last book they wrote. They are part of communities, whether online or in person. They keep writing even though they are unsure of the outcome—will the book sell? Will people read it and leave reviews? Am I doing everything I can to elevate my profile? Many writers can’t and don’t know what the future holds, yet they continue to persevere. Agents continue to sign clients with the hope that a project will sell, but even they can never be sure.

Many people in publishing are willing to take a chance on authors without a strong sales record or with less-than-stellar sales, but who show great potential in their writing. These are precisely the people we need to make room for.

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