Where is the big fiction book of the season?

There isn't a big book of the fall. Why is that?

Welcome to another edition of Publishing Confidential. I don’t know about you, but it feels like there isn’t a book that everyone is talking about this fall. I have a theory about that, which I’ll get to, but first, a word about DEEPDIVE:

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And now, the main event:

Where is the big fiction book of the season?

Something I’m noticing more frequently is the absence of a fiction book everyone talks about in a given publishing season: Fall, Winter/Spring, and Summer. A glance at the hardcover fiction The New York Times Bestseller list tells me that Iron Wing and Fourth Wing by Rebecca Yarros hold the top two spots, followed by Alchemised by SenLin Yu and Dan Brown’s new book The Secret of Secrets (Sidenote: This is the book I saw the most in bookstore windows while in Rome last month). Rounding out the list are books by Danielle Steel, Ken Follett, Vince Flynn (with co-author Don Bentley), Elin Hilderbrand, Lily King, Richard Osman, and others. Every book I searched for on Amazon had a page that began with, “New York Times bestselling author…” SenLin Yu is the exception, but even their collected online works have garnered more than twenty million individual downloads and have been translated into twenty-three languages. So, no real surprises here, which should tell you how willing publishers are to take a chance.

In September 2006, I was VP of Publicity at Atria Books. We were about to publish a debut novel called The Thirteenth Tale by Diane Setterfield. There was no TikTok, Instagram, Twitter, or Facebook back then, so Diane had no platform, and I doubt she would have wanted one. I couldn’t get anyone to review the book. It debuted at #1 on the NYT fiction list because independent bookstores loved it, and book clubs immediately took to it. We were stunned (and drank champagne!). I doubt the same thing would happen today. Our attention is divided, celebrity book clubs seem to rule the roost, and publishers don’t take huge risks.

When I think about why I haven’t seen a big book for fall, I consider my sources. I am primarily active on Threads, where there’s a robust book community. However, no one really seems to rally around a book for positive reasons. Instead, you’ll quickly learn about book cons gone wrong, read posts about an author who may or may not have meant to say something, and scroll through a lot of complaints. A book promotion vehicle, it is not. BookTok is what it is, and Bookstagram, which I love, isn’t giving me “book of the season” vibes. I blame the algorithm.

Now that social media is fractured and algorithms are constantly changing, it’s that much harder to discern what book, if any, everyone is talking about. Substack is excellent for books, but I find that my individual taste for books is the need most newsletters meet, not books for the masses. I’m sure others feel the same.

We already know how hard it is for books to cut through the noise of social media platforms. We also know that reviews are scarce, and publicity for books is somewhat difficult to obtain. Okay, very difficult. That said, it’s been a long time since a cluster of good reviews minted a “book of the season.” You can bet that every book currently on the NYT fiction bestseller list has had major marketing. For example, Danielle Steel fans only need to know that a new book is available, and they show up. The same could be said for many authors on the list. I call these “legacy bestsellers”: They are books by authors who have already achieved bestselling status. It’s not easy to take their respective spots on the list.

I don’t ever feel that the success of an author depends on bestseller lists. A book can sell steadily over time without having been a bestseller, and that is still a success in my mind. We may not know precisely why a book sells steadily, but we can make an educated guess: marketing, publicity, and platform—especially the latter. If social platforms are fractured, making it harder to hear about books, shouldn’t the author be the one on a platform telling other people about it? This is where building a newsletter comes in handy, and why authors can’t just give the keys of their book to a publicist and think magic will happen. It’s not good enough to post and walk away; you must also engage. I often wonder if an author can make a “book of the season.” I’m not sure.

Another factor I’ve considered in looking for a “book of the season” is the number of books published. There are too many. I know that is an unpopular opinion, but it’s undeniable. Consumers often experience decision fatigue, so they tend to choose the option that is most readily available, which can influence where certain books are placed in bookstores. Streaming services have the same problem when they premiere a new show. Consumers are more likely to rewatch something than they are to try a new show. Once people start talking about a new show (The Pitt comes to mind), others will give it a try. Books are not that different, but I see streaming series reviewed far more than most books. It helps that media outlets publish recaps of episodes to discuss as a kind of book club for shows.

This brings us back to the question about the “book of the season.” I asked ChatGPT if there was one. Here is its answer:

Let’s hope publishers aren’t using this method for determining which books are popular. Something tells me it is not quite right.

I’ll keep an eye out between now and December to see if things change. In the meantime, let me know in the comments if you think there is a “book of the season.”

A Very Special WHAT I’M LISTENING TO:

Twenty-five years ago, my husband and his friends formed The Rockstar Project and recorded an album. It’s been remastered and released on Spotify and Apple! This is my husband on the cover. Here is a link to the album on Spotify. My favorite songs are 'It’s the Last Time' and 'Chattanooga’.