The Biggest Challenge Publishing Faces in 2025

It’s probably not what you think.

When I was in my MBA program, someone told me that publishers don’t like people with MBAs. I’m starting to understand why. The book industry leans more creative, not analytical. During my MBA program, I discovered I was more analytical than I thought. That’s why the current state of consumer confidence worries me.

From CNBC.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 98.3 for the month, down nearly 7% and below the Dow Jones forecast for 102.3. It was the largest monthly drop since August 2021.

The Expectations Index tumbled 9.3 points to a 72.9 reading, the first time since June 2024 that the measure has fallen below the level consistent with recession.

Allow me to backtrack for a moment. Let’s review the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and its purpose. The Consumer Confidence Index is an economic indicator that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about the overall state of the economy and their financial situations. Typically derived from survey responses, the index asks households to evaluate current economic conditions and their expectations for the future. A high CCI suggests that consumers feel confident about the economy, leading to increased spending and economic growth, while a low CCI may indicate caution and reduced spending. Organizations such as The Conference Board in the United States regularly publish the index, making it a key tool for economists, businesses, and policymakers to assess economic sentiment and predict future spending trends.

Why this is a problem for publishers:

If I were a publisher, I would closely monitor the CCI. February spending suggests that sales will be subdued for the foreseeable future, so publishers must adjust their expectations for specific titles. We may hear that sales have increased compared to the same period last year—if that is true, I would ask which titles contributed to the boost. My guess is that “ Let Them “ by Mel Robbins and “ Onyx Storm “ by Rebecca Yarros (along with her other titles) are significant contributors to the industry’s overall sales. I always hesitate at general sales data because an increase in sales doesn’t encompass all books—only a tiny percentage of them. What publishers must confront now is a steep decline in consumer spending, as only the top 10% of earners have increased their expenditure. How many people in that 10% are book buyers? We don’t know, but the industry needs more than just the top 10% of earners to purchase books.

Publishing faces two dilemmas: tariffs increase the cost of producing books overseas, while consumers tend to be price-sensitive. Raising book prices isn't feasible when consumer spending is low. You may need to publish fewer books (please don’t yell at me). If a clothing or beauty brand notices that a product isn’t selling, they discount it and then discontinue it. Granted, some books end up in the bargain bin, but that isn’t the solution to publishing more books than people buy. When economic conditions decline, the answer isn't to bombard consumers with more products. Instead, it is to keep prices within a specific range, publish wisely, and incentivize consumers to buy.

Publishing’s vicious cycle:

Book publishing math is distinct and nearly mythical. Often, it presents a challenging cycle of numbers that seldom align. Imprints at the Big Five acquire numerous titles to satisfy their shipping quotas for a specified number of books to retail accounts each quarter and fiscal year. Why? Orders from retail accounts are concrete, and no one can predict how a book will perform. This cycle begins at the sales conference, where imprints inform the sales force about the book’s “get out” number. The “get out” number is an arbitrary figure indicating how important a book is. For instance, a lead fiction title (indicating a considerable investment of effort and resources) has a “get out” number of 50,000 copies. This figure can also represent “an announced first printing,” signaling to the industry that a book is noteworthy. The imprint may print 20,000 copies or fewer, depending on retail orders. When Publishers Weekly releases seasonal announcements, a book's “announced first printing” often appears in bold. This can confuse authors, as they may think their first printing is what is stated when, in reality, it is much lower. Most imprints print close to the bone but must fulfill fiscal obligations to ship “x” number of books. It’s not a great equation to work with when an economic downturn looms.

Realistic expectations:

Publishers should recognize that pre-orders for most titles are likely to be modest, so they should place less emphasis on them as indicators of a book’s success. If consumers are holding onto their money right now, they certainly aren’t going to part with it to preorder a book scheduled for release in August. Most authors are not at fault when preorders are light. It is also essential for publishers to assess economic conditions when a book performs poorly. This was true during the pandemic, and it is true now. You could spend all the money in the world on marketing and publicity, but if the economy is in bad shape, you will not see consumers flocking to bookstores. It would be wise to consider this when deciding whether or not to pick up the option on a debut author’s second book. Sales data only tells one part of the story; economic conditions and consumer behavior illustrate the rest. Maybe the book didn’t fail—the economy did.

Staying flexible:

The best thing publishers (along with agents, editors, and authors) can do right now is to remain flexible. If changing a book's publication date is possible, why not go for it? I don’t think any publisher can be attached to publication dates for specific books if they know those books would have a better chance of success at a different time. It’s like taking a house off the market and relisting it when the conditions are more favorable. Booksellers and sales departments should take note as well. If I had a dime for every time I heard, “But we already sold this book to accounts,” I’d be a rich woman. Adaptability is not publishing’s strong suit, and that needs to change. As long as there is turbulence in Washington, DC (and there is a lot!), the economy will continue taking a hit. There is no easy solution, but publishers can better prepare if they are not siloed. The big picture can no longer be ignored.

END NOTES:

COOL EVENT: Creating a High-Impact TEDx Talk.

Join Women’s Media Group via Zoom at 6 pm on March 4. It’s $15 for non-members, and all proceeds from this event support the Women's Media Group Educational Foundation. Register Here. Here is a bit about the event.:

Join this session to learn how to create a high-impact TEDx Talk. Marketing veteran Bridget Marmion will be in conversation with Terri Trespicio, whose TEDx Talk “Stop Searching for Your Passion” has been viewed over 8 million times. Named by HubSpot as one of the “Top 18 Female Speakers Who Are Killing It”, Terri will share insights and strategies to help you learn:

• What defines a TEDx Talk, and how it differs from other speaking opportunities

• Key elements to consider when preparing your talk

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• How to maximize your talk’s impact—on the day you give it and long after

We’ll also quickly recap last year’s WMG event on “Booking a TEDx Talk” before opening the floor for Q&A.

What I’m Watching:

It’s more like, what am I NOT watching? My current lineup includes Paradise on Hulu, White Lotus on Max, Day of the Jackal on Peacock, Selling Sunset on Netflix (real estate reality shows are my jam), and Millers in Marriage on Prime (movie—Ed Burns wrote + directed it—and also stars in it—I was not wowed by it). Yes, we do have every streaming service. No, you may not have my password.

We also found ourselves transfixed by the “North America” docuseries narrated by Tom Hanks on NBC. If you like animals and nature, check it out.

It's random, but I’m on my third rewatch of Younger, and the more I watch it, the more toxically I think Kelsey (Hillary Duff) behaves. She gets angry at Liza for being involved with Charles but sleeps with co-workers and her authors. It's not cool. I’ve also noticed that Liza (Sutton Foster) is too much of a do-gooder. My faves remain Diana and Maggie. Oh, and I am team Josh.